DISQUS

vijayboyapati · 8 months ago

Thanks for the analysis Ben! I've had a hell of a time trying to get a borrow on IYR. Haven't been able to get shares at either Vanguard or Schwab. F@#k! I am absolutely loath to use SRS either, that piece of shit has been a house of pain, even tho IYR hasn't really gone anywhere or done anything.

Maybe time to start looking at IYR puts since vol has come in so much. Thoughts? Have you managed to find any shares to borrow? Or are you sitting on a legacy position?

mchawe · 8 months ago

A good short candidate IMO is MET. They have a $36 B in commercial real estate loans out of which $16 Billion exposure to CMBS and obviously also investment portfolio exposure to the general market. About 46% of their exposure is to California and Florida, and also about 60% in Office, Retail and Appartments. (Office vacancies in New York City in Class A around 12% and that is one of the best areas.) For bonds maturing in 2009, S&P found 48% in2004 to be in default and 1999, 25% !!
No problem borrowing their shares at the moment and their options are well traded. I have gone right off ETFs such as SGS and SDS because they do not suit my style of trading.

commercialrealestate · 8 months ago

A lot of changes might show in the graph for the next period..

Real estate marketing · 6 months ago

Commercial real estate have really difficulties in surviving economic crisis today.. but I'm sure that commercial real estate will not be bailout..